Is there a recession in the offing?
The short answer is yes. There’s always a recession after a bull market but the big question is when….will it be this year, next or even the year after?
Economists and business watchers are digging into this one with added vigor in the wake of the inverted yield curve reports of a couple weeks back. That development is a strong indicator of an impending recession, on average 22 months after it appears, according to Toronto-based investment banker Paris Aden. Aden, who was born in Nipawin and grew up in Saskatchewan, is speaking in the province this week.
Noted Canadian economist Peter Anderson who writes for TEC, the country’s leading CEO development organization, says the recent strong Canadian growth numbers are probably a temporary blip as the underlying problems are still there: trade wars, energy sector headwinds, falling business investment and declining consumer spending.
We had a strong growth report in August – even better than the American numbers – which dispelled worries of a recession but it is likely only a reprieve of a few months.