Paul Martin commentary
Canada may have dodged a recession. For now at least.
The economics team at RBC Royal Bank has issued a projection suggesting the Canadian economy experienced a positive quarter in the first three months of this year. This comes on the heels of a negative quarter to end last year. Economists like to use the metric of two consecutive negative quarters as the definition of a recession.
But the rebound in 2026 means we didn’t get the required second quarter of negative growth.
According to the bank, the national economy lost six-tenths of a point in Q4 of last year. They are now suggesting that the economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.7-percent in Q1.
Hidden in the details are some other positive signs. Our population has been declining so a growing economy means we’re producing more per person: more output by fewer people.
The one caveat on that assessment is that we were consuming larger volumes of existing inventories so it may not have been as much production by fewer people as expected at first glance.
