Consumer spending started to fall last month, especially in Saskatchewan.
We will not get the official StatsCan figures on retail or consumer spending in August for six weeks or so but we have a very effective proxy for that metric – activity on credit and bank cards which are compiled by the chartered banks much more quickly than StatsCan generates them.
We have just seen RBC’s August tally and it shows consumer spending contracting across the nation last month.
It was particularly noticeable in Saskatchewan which had the biggest pullback at 1.3-percent.
Now, part of the explanation for the change can be attributed to slowing population growth as the federal government tightens immigration rules.
The inflow of new arrivals had fueled stronger consumer spending for years but now that volume is declining.
Another element in the Saskatchewan story is fuel prices which had been declining on a three-month rolling basis.
Interestingly, the spending on essentials in the last three months was slowing nationally while non-essential purchases of both goods and services were unchanged.
