There are forecasts and then there are actuals. Those are the realities of any organization – public or private. We make a budget or forecast but then we have to actually execute that plan. Sometimes it works, sometimes….well, it doesn’t.
When it comes to measuring provincial economies, about all we have to work with in this environment are quarterly forecasts – usually issued by banks and think tanks – and then the year-end report issued by StatsCan. But it comes three or four months after year-end so is not always timely.
In a bid to find some middle ground in this field, the economics unit at National Bank of Canada has created what it calls the Index of Provincial Economic Momentum. It provides a monthly assessment of how a province’s economy is doing.
And on this one, Saskatchewan is looking better than most.
At the mid-point of the year we had a three-month Momentum Index of .7-percent. That was third behind Alberta and BC but showed us with a positive trend that improved sharply over the two previous reporting periods.