Saskatchewan’s economy has been one of the stronger Canadian performers in recent years with growth averaging three-percent annually for the last three years.
That’s the headline in the latest quarterly economic forecast issued by the team at TD Bank. Now, TD is generally among the most bearish on Saskatchewan so this is quite an upbeat statement.
The bank’s new outlook has Saskatchewan in third place among the provinces when measuring GDP growth this year, trailing second-place Alberta and Newfoundland in top spot as it rides an oil export boom spurred by the Middle East situation. Production there has risen 30-percent so far this year.
This narrative fits with the bank’s view that growth will slow national this year – to 1.2-percent in Saskatchewan but we’ll see it rebound sharply to 2-percent next year, putting back into second spot behind Alberta.
The softer 2026 forecast is based challenging conditions for spring seeding coupled with a bit of cooling in consumer spending as well as a levelling off of construction activity which has been above-average since 2023.
