Paul Martin Commentary
The truce between Canada and China coupled with higher oil prices – even if the gains are short-term – are going to do some positive things for the Saskatchewan economy.
RBC Royal Bank has just issued its quarterly economic forecast for the provinces and the nation as a whole and it turns out global forces are putting winds in the sails of some regions while serving as headwinds for others.
The bank says the spike in oil prices and China removing its tariffs on canola products have prompted an upward revision of their forecasts for Saskatchewan, Alberta as well as Newfoundland and Labrador. Ontario and Quebec, meanwhile, are revised downward because of the drag generated by American tariffs.
They have pushed the projection for 2025 for Saskatchewan to 2.7-percent, just a notch behind Newfoundland for the strongest performance in the nation. Alberta was a further tenth-of-a-point behind us.
For 2026, Alberta will regain top spot with expansion of 2.5-percent and we will be in second place. The same story will be repeated in 2027 – Alberta first, Saskatchewan second… both with growth exceeding 2-percent, well ahead of the national average.
