Measuring Drought Damage

Here’s the first estimate of how much damage the drought has caused on crop production across Western Canada.

StatsCan has just issued its forecast for this year’s crop production or at least how things looked a month ago, on July 31.

To put it simply – the hit is between 30and 40 percent but leaning more towards 40-percent overall.

Canola production in Saskatchewan was projected to be down 33% based on lower yields but more acreage. They target yields at 27 bushels, about 38% below average and the lowest output in nearly a decade.

Producers devoted fewer acres to wheat this year so reduced yield as well acreage declines meant output is likely to fall 40% with averages running in the 30 bushel range.

The largest decline of all came in chickpeas which were projected to see 70% less output while field peas were down 43 percent and lentils dropped 30 percent.

This forecast was built using new satellite technology to monitor crop progress and it also showed the crops matured faster than any other year this method has been deployed.