A recession may be just around the corner in this country — sales of women’s wear are declining.
It’s not an official measurement but it is one of those classic indicators. We got some new retail sales figures on Friday. This is usually a measure of consumer confidence but, when you’re in an environment like the one we’re currently experiencing, it is also a metric tor tracking where inflation is going.
Sales of women’s wear were down in July. That is usually a sign of flagging consumer confidence but it also reflects falling gasoline prices.
Fuel is a big part of the consumer spending envelope so any changes here can skew the overall picture and there were big changes in July as energy prices began falling after the peaks triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
So, while overall spending volumes retracted a bit in July, gasoline was only part of the story. Some observers think the bellwether indicator of an impending recession lies in falling sales of women’s wear and that one was in retreat in July with declines in clothing, jewellery and shoes.
