Now that we have a 30-day window or reprieve before we are again facing an imminent imposition of tariffs on our exports to the US, we have some time to take a breath and try to figure out just how much damage the proposed tariffs would inflict on our economy.
And the economists at CIBC Capital markets have come up with an initial assessment showing Saskatchewan will not escape unscathed but we’ll certainly do better than some provinces.
First of all, the bank says this is unusual territory so it is nearly impossible to offer precise numbers…it is more of a trend analysis. The first thing we’d see is more inflation as imports become more expensive if we retaliate but that would be short-lived. It might, though, be enough to push us into a recession.
But if the US goes ahead with 25-percent on goods and 10-percent or less on commodities such as oil, Ontario and Quebec would take the brunt of the hit – about 80-percent of the overall impact. BC and Alberta would follow quite a ways back and then Saskatchewan, ahead of Manitoba and Atlantic Canada.
