Energy transition is about energy and not reducing greenhouse gas emissions, but Brad Hayes, PhD, P.Geo., FGC said that does not mean society can ignore emissions.
Hayes is president of Petrel Robertson Consulting. He said concern about emissions and their effects is well deserved. There is no point denying, but he stated that energy is life. Everything humans do uses energy – from growing food to manufacturing to transportation.
He said that reality is captured in the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals report. Hayes said those 17 goals are meant to outline what we need for everyone to have a modern life, prosperity and peace.
Most of the goals, he said, are straightforward – quality education, gender equality, clean environment, and water to drink. All people are likely to agree these goals are important.
He drew attention to Goal 7, which is to ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy. Hayes would argue humanity can’t accomplish the other goals without this one being achieved. He said we have many sources of energy – fossil fuels, biomass, wind, solar and more, but around 80 per cent of the energy we use comes from fossil fuels. This has come down primarily because of nuclear energy and hydro electricity.
He also pointed out Goal 13, which is taking urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts, another goal Hayes would say can’t be achieved without Goal 7 because energy is life.
A transition has been underway in global primary energy consumption since 1800. A graph he displayed showed that by 1900, coal and biomass made up the world’s energy supply. From there, we’ve added other energy sources. Renewables joined the mix in recent years.
He provided data from Dr. Vaclav Smil, Distinguished Professor Emeritus in the Faculty of Environment at the University of Manitoba. The graph he displayed showed the years that four different energy sources were each able to supply five per cent of the global energy demand. For coal, that was 1840. For oil, it was 1915. Natural gas was 1930 while modern renewables was 2012.
The graph also showed how much energy each source supplied over the next 60 years. So, coal supplied 50 per cent of the global demand 60 years after 1840. Oil supplied 40 per cent after 60 years after 1915. Natural gas supplied 25 per cent sixty years after 1930. Hayes said that part of the graph showed that the more sources you add, the lower the absolute importance of that source became.
He also pointed out that with each source of energy added, demand has not dropped. It increased. He said trying to increase the supply of energy while at the same trying to replace sources creates an even bigger challenge.
He went through the many sources of energy – fossil fuels, nuclear fission, hydroelectricity, wind and solar, and geothermal – listing the benefits and challenges of each one. Hayes said humanity is going to need to be many, many solutions and there are no silver bullets to take us from where we are today to a better way in the future.
He asked what we need to think about to get there. First, the world’s population continues to grow and the distribution of people is changing. Second, everyone in the world wants an energy rich lifestyle. He said it is only in energy rich societies, such as Canada, that people are focussed on climate change. Populations in other nations are focussed on achieving the modern lifestyle we enjoy.
Third, he said that even when we agree on improving energy infrastructure, it takes time and effort to do the job correctly. Fourth, he pointed out how people aren’t changing their behaviours. For example, the top selling vehicles in the U.S. are big, full-scale pickup trucks when often a more efficient vehicle would be suitable for the driver’s needs.
Hayes said change is necessary. He said plans focussed solely on reducing emissions are not energy transition plans because they don’t address energy availability, security and affordability. He went on to say the change we can achieve will be what we all agree to accomplish while we must recognize the fact that humanity impacts the environment. Finally, he stated that a prosperous society with adequate energy can focus on improving the environment. A society starved for energy cannot.
