With central bankers using higher interest rates to combat the effects of rising inflation, economists are tracking metrics such as retail spending to see if the action is changing our shopping habits.
We have just seen the February numbers which are generally lower.
Now, we’d normally expect the aggregate for February to be smaller than January’s simply because the month is 10 per cent shorter so we have fewer shopping days.
But even on a seasonally adjusted basis, the overall expenditures at retail outlets is down — marginally across the country and three per cent lower in Saskatchewan which leaves it about four per cent higher than a year earlier.
The big movers were gasoline prices falling but volume of automotive parts increasing.
StatsCan is also expecting an even bigger decline when we see the March numbers but a report from TD Bank suggests the trend may be in the other direction.
Their tracking of credit and debit card transactions shows a very slight gain in March even though the impact of government inflation-support checks is now starting to wear off.
