The quarterly reports or forecasts on the provincial economy issued by the nation’s chartered banks are starting to flow. And there is a consistency emerging.
So far, all have reduced earlier projections saying Saskatchewan’s overall performance is being hindered by challenges in the grain business this year – from market access to difficult weather – as well as challenges in the resource business, especially uranium and potash. They say the loss of canola exports to China means inventories are rising which is lowering prices, factors that will hinder farm cash receipts in the months ahead.
TD Bank is now saying we should expect growth to be under three-quarters of a point this year, comparable to an earlier projection from RBC Royal Bank. TD then sees some improvement next year – with expansion rising to 1.2 percent and then a further 1.5 points in 2021.
The job market offers a more promising story as employment is rising but they are cautious on this one saying employers are hiring more but output is not increasing so we should look for a slowdown in job creation next year.