With Canada’s railways at a standstill, there are plenty of opinions and commentaries related to how this dispute will impact various industries or jurisdictions.
Saskatchewan, for example, is the most trade dependent economy in the country. We have a small consumer base but we’re highly productive so we have to find customers beyond our borders to buy our output.
Our biggest industries — agriculture, oil production and potash mining — are heavily reliant on purchasers outside our borders.
So, we know this will be felt in all corners of Saskatchewan which leads to the national question: what will it do to the overall Canadian national economy?
It depends is the most likely answer you’ll hear from economists.
If it lasts a week or ten days, it will put a dint in our GDP but a manageable one. Avery Shenfeld at CIBC Capital Markets says if lasts longer than that, though, the impact will grow exponentially.
A month would put the country in recession as factories would close down as parts supplies dry up and inflation would go up again as shortages would trigger higher prices.
