Ken From, P.Eng., FEC, FGC (Hon.) has been thinking a lot about what he considers to be a super wicked problem.
It is a problem he hopes young engineers seriously consider as they start their careers in what he sees as an ideal time to be an engineer. He told the room he hopes to “spark a bonfire” of thinking with his attempt to point out the consequences of the current narrative around climate change and energy.
From said there is a strong desire to decarbonize but if we move too quickly, we can introduce new problems. He pointed out there are three types of problems. Simple problems have a cause and solution. Complex problems have multiple causes and multiple solutions. A wicked problem will also have multiple causes that involve social or cultural issues, making the problem very difficult, if not impossible, to solve because its causes are complex and interconnected.
From showed a slide that showed Mike Toman, Research Manager at World Bank, said that, “Climate change is an issue that presents great scientific and economic complexities, some very deep uncertainties, profound ethical issues, an even lack of agreement on what the problem is.”
He provided details about Canada’s emissions as well as Saskatchewan’s before outline Saskatchewan’s energy systems and the energy demand by sector in this province. He sees a lot about Canada’s energy use that should make Canadians proud.
Energy transition is an inaccurate phrase, From believes. He prefers the term transformation because it means improvements are being made rather than moving from one to another. From pointed out that changes take time with some taking centuries. He described how the world has added energy sources as the demand for energy has grown, with technology and economic advantages prompting those changes, but now we are looking to subtract to achieve net zero.
Government policy is driving changes now with politicians and activists putting forward a narrative with a clear message. Fossil fuels are bad and we must stop using them. That, he said, has changed the conversation about energy.
From points out that framing the issue to say that we must be net zero creates a “trilemma” between energy affordability, energy security and energy transition. There are many ways to reduce emissions, but few energy systems can be functional and net zero, so, expecting to find a “silver bullet” is not wise. Wisdom, he said, is knowing when to avoid perfection. “Do not demolish the old house before the new one is built,” said From.
He also pointed out this thinking prompts people to explore “distractions”, such as direct air capture, carbon credits, ammonia for energy and hydrogen. He said getting distracted could get society in more trouble by drawing focus from what we can do to clean up what we already use. He reminded engineers that they are the ones to design technology requiring energy and the world’s energy demands keep growing.
But also, our way of life in Canada is wasteful, From stated. We waste food (which took energy to produce) and we purchase large vehicles to park in concrete parkades. Energy consumption would come down if people showed more control rather than sustaining our current way of life. He said action is needed to prevent devastating damage and included himself among those who could make different lifestyle choices.
The timeframe for that devastation is far out, but From said the magnitude is so high that action must be taken now. Humans want instant gratification, so, we don’t always recognize the need to do something now when the benefit is obscure and in the future.
Doing what is necessary to care for the climate is the same as someone taking medications now to avoid serious health repercussions later in life. By acting now, we can avoid having to do “really big stuff” later. He said the public often does not understand how engineers make decisions about risk and he encouraged engineers to speak public about how to avoid these consequences.
He said this is an exciting time to be a young engineer to work on solving humanity’s biggest problems. He said there are so many opportunities to make energy sources and their uses better as the world insists on consuming more as the population grows and governments make policies to encourage investments in unproven sources. Historically, engineers solve these problems to create equity and a better life for all. He again asked that we don’t destroy the old house before the new one is built.
