Persistent COVID infection rate numbers are going to impair the Saskatchewan economy’s ability to rebound this year. That comes from the economists at CIBC Capital Markets in their updated provincial forecast.
They are targeting growth of 4.1% this year. That is considerably lower than the 5.2% we lost last year so we should not expect to recapture last year’s declines in the coming 12 months. That is probably the least bullish outlook to come from one of the major banks so far.
And they attribute part of the sluggishness to our persistently high COVID case numbers. They say other provinces are poised to make a quick rebound – places like Quebec, for example, where restrictions on business and mobility have been tighter. Based on something they call the Average Stringency Index, Saskatchewan has had the softest lockdown rules but, because our numbers are not falling as sharply as say Ontario or Manitoba our policy makers are likely to maintain restrictions longer.
Nonetheless, they are expecting our unemployment rate to hover around 6.5% through 2021, which would be the second-lowest in the country.
Source; https://economics.cibccm.com/economicsweb/cds?ID=12053&TYPE=EC_PDF
