Sask Government Debt Forecast to be Lowest in Canada

They start with the same information but they interpret it in their own way.

BMO Bank of Montreal has released its quarterly provincial forecast and it is something of a departure from another of the banks and their release of last week. The previous forecast showed a spread of almost two percentage points between what the Saskatchewan economy would lose this year and regain next year.

BMO looked at the same facts and has determined the spread will be only half a point, a 75-percent improvement over the competing perspective.

BMO says we should expect the provincial economy will decline by just under six point this year and grow by roughly 5.5 points next year – leaving us half a percentage point lower after COVID. But it says we can expect that new home starts will actually be a little better this year and in 2019.

One other thing that separates BMO’s reports from the other banks is that they track provincial government debt as a percentage of GDP. And on this one Saskatchewan has now moved into first place among the provinces.