If you find all the econo-babble about the state of the economy with analysts offering this perspective or that one too hard to follow, here’s some advice from Peter Andersen.
The former deputy research head at the Bank of Canada says watch copper prices and housing to see where local and global economies are headed.
Andersen writes a monthly report for the CEOs in TEC Canada, Canada’s largest executive development program. His latest report says the odds of a recession are now above 50 per cent. Last month he was 50-50.
Copper prices have fallen in recent months, a signal that China is seeing economic weakness and the auto industry, which is a big user, is lowering its forecast.
More locally, housing is easy to watch. It is very sensitive to rising interest rates and this week’s big increase will soften an already softening market further. Listings are rising, prices are dropping. New starts are slowing. Saskatchewan, he noted, had the biggest decline in new home starts in the country in the first half of the year.
